Lessons from ROLR: Why the U.S. Esports Betting Market Isn't Ripe Yet and Vietnamese Startups Should Be Cautious

On a July evening, thousands of fans packed an arena in Los Angeles to watch the League of Legends finals. The venue was full, streams had millions of views. But for Seth Young – CEO of prediction market platform ROLR – that scene was only the 'shell' of a market that hasn't truly ripened. 'People think esports in the U.S. is ready for betting. I've been saying that for seven years, and I'm still saying it: the market isn't there yet,' Young told the interviewer. His frank statement paints a picture that contrasts with investor expectations. For Vietnamese esports startups dreaming of an esports betting 'boom,' the ROLR story is both a wake-up call and a strategic guide. To understand why, we first need context. In just five years, esports has grown from niche tournaments into a billion-dollar industry. In Vietnam, the League of Legends Championship (VCS) attracts millions of viewers each season. Revenue from advertising and sponsorship grows in double digits. But the betting segment – though illegal or operating informally – remains a 'pie' many businesses want to grab. However, according to analysis from a veteran who has worked at both Valve and the High Roller prediction platform, the reality is far more complex. The heart of the issue lies in the gap between audience size and betting behavior. In the U.S., esports draws huge crowds but conversion to betting is very low. Young explains, 'Traditional sports have centuries of history; fans are used to betting on their hometown teams. Esports is too young, lacks local-team branding, and match data is insufficient to create high-liquidity prediction markets.' ROLR, which operated the High Roller product in weaker markets than the U.S., demonstrated positive ROAS (return on ad spend) for five consecutive years. That success came from a 'surgical' spending strategy: no money-burning, only focusing on measurable channels. Their partner, Spike Up Media – a lead generation firm that invested heavily in ROLR – serves as an extension arm to bring quality users onto the platform. The lesson for Vietnam: our esports market may be growing fast, but legal infrastructure and user habits haven't caught up. While local startups often rely on 'blanket' advertising, ROLR's approach teaches us: spend only when you clearly see which channels bring real users, not fake views. Look at the numbers: ROLR allocates most of its budget to tightly tracked campaigns instead of mass banner ads. A Vietnamese startup could apply the same when piloting an esports betting exchange: partner with clean-data providers, start with loyal gaming communities before scaling. But here's the paradox. Young admits the U.S. market is 'not ready,' yet that very fact creates a gap for surgical players like ROLR. 'We don't want to become DraftKings or FanDuel. We focus on prediction markets – where there's less competition and controllable margins,' he says. For Vietnam, where esports is in a 'golden' investment phase but lacks transparent financial products, the advice could be: don't try to make the whole market; find a small niche (e.g., VCS match predictions) and execute it well before expanding. I've witnessed many Vietnamese esports startups fail because of overambition without a solid foundation. One peer-to-peer betting project launched in 2026 with large funding, but closed after six months due to low liquidity and legal risks. They burned money on Facebook ads without any ROAS measurement. ROLR, in contrast, built credibility step by step with data. In a natural laboratory where the market is still nascent, 'the biggest mistake is thinking that the audience crowd will automatically become bettors.' Young's statement is not just for the U.S. – it applies to Vietnam, where gamers still view esports as pure entertainment rather than an earning opportunity. This leads to a counterintuitive angle: the more the Vietnamese esports market develops, the more invisible barriers appear. Game publishers (Riot, Garena) have strict policies on using match data for betting purposes. Without clear laws, any startup could get 'squeezed' at any time. ROLR faces similar risks in the U.S. as regulators (CFTC) constantly change prediction market rules. However, they mitigate this by focusing on a niche product, avoiding traditional sports that are more heavily regulated. The numbers speak: High Roller – ROLR's precursor product – was profitable in markets 'weaker than the U.S.' That proves that if the product is right, even a small market can be profitable. The equation for Vietnamese startups is: are you willing to accept a small market for 3–5 years to build historical data? Or do you want to chase venture capital and quickly fail? The answer lies in understanding core values: 'We know who we are and who we aren't.' That statement from Young should hang on the wall of every Vietnamese esports startup meeting room. Looking ahead, my prediction: The esports betting market in Vietnam will not explode within the next five years. Legal barriers, user trust issues, and lack of payment infrastructure will constrain growth. But startups that follow a 'surgical' strategy – focusing on a tiny segment, building trust through real data – will survive and may rise when the market matures. Like ROLR did: slow but steady, knowing when to wait. 'That generation wasn't wrong; they were just too early.' – a phrase I often use when analyzing failed startups. With esports betting, being too early is as dangerous as being wrong. Look at ROLR: they waited seven years, and they're still waiting. That's not a lack of ambition, but the wisdom of someone who bet his career on esports – Seth Young, a former CS2 pro turned CEO. He knows well: when the stands are empty, football becomes a game of numbers; and when the stands are full but the cash register is silent, esports is still just a dream.